إعداد نموذج رياضي للتنبؤ بأعداد الرحلات المتولدة من مركز مدينة طرابلس
Abstract The ever-growing numbers of people and vehicles seen by the Libyan cities at the present time, and the consequent increase economic and social development was held after the last incumbent to think of future supply in the system of road network in Tripoli after a decade or several decades to respond to the request and in particular the urgent need for radical solutions to all problems of congestion and bottlenecks and traffic accidents that were not the same size, severity and loss of physical and moral than ever before. This study addressed the focus of transportation planning, transport and highlighted the various stages of transport planning and reviewed the most important models used to predict the future traffic volumes, a resurgence or trip generation, trip distribution, mode of choice and traffic Assignment, where the focus of this study the first type of models which trip generation in the study area in Tripoli. And has been a review of some international studies in this area in both the United States of America, China, Korea, Iran, Nigeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the focus in these studies to examine the variables affecting the creation of trips, the so-called independent variables affecting a number of family members and the number of vehicles and number of employees and income, the same factors that have been taken into account in the study area in Tripoli. Were identified the study area within the Centre for the city of Tripoli Commercial (CBD) called green belt area and specifically (range locality Martyrs coast and Aleneuvliyn), which recently experienced jams unprecedented, was the use of both methods for regression analysis to create a mathematical model is calculated both (Average trips, vehicle trips, and work trips) and Cross Classification Analysis to find work trips of the classification (number of vehicles / household size) and finding vehicle trips from category (the number of employees / income). Data were collected and information on the ground and through the questionnaire prepared by families in the region through the use of home Meetups and interviews necessary for the formation of mathematical models for the study and were compared with the results of both methods as used was to highlight the most important software modern and universally used in the travel demand. The study concluded the adoption of two models of regression to find trips generated, the first to find the average trips and the second vehicle trips The model work trips, he was excluded for being unfit, the Statistical The comparison higher efficiency of the regression model vehicle trips than cross classification analysis table to find the estimated values in generated trip, as a set of recommendations aimed at reducing the obstacles and difficulties in finding and the formation of specialized models to calculate the demand for mobility in cities of Libya
أمل فتح الله زايد (2010)
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